A multiple linear regression model and corresponding inferential analysis were used to study the business performance (Y-sales) and impact of the strategies implemented on suppliers of medical devices to the Portuguese health system during the period of economic crisis and international bailout provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European Commission EC (2011-2013). Specific measures over commercial investment (X1) and sales concentration (X2) were adopted, rendering these as the variables particularly suitable to explain the sales. ANOVA analysis shows that the model is globally significant, and that X1 is relevant in explaining business performance Y, as confirmed by the individual t-test. This is not the case of X2 as, despite the reasonable economic meaning of its regression coefficient, the individual t-test points to its irrelevance. The validity of model hypothesis, namely on the residuals, were attested by performing the White and Breusch-Godfrey statistical tests. The economic interpretation of the regression coefficients evidence the success of the measures adopted and the small variation observed on X2 could account for its apparent statistic irrelevance. The general management should adopt one of the following options: either decrease more the level of concentration until the variable becomes, hopefully statistical relevant, or follow the opposite trend and increase even more the concentration level and observe its impact on the sales. The work evidences the application of a mathematical tool to aid decision making in current management of small trading companies being mostly transversal given the specificity of this Portuguese economic sector.
Ricardo Brito Barros, Universidade Europeia, Portugal
Stream: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
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