Counting the Uncounted: The Statistical Construction of School Dropout and Grade Retention in Portugal

Author Information

Cibelle Toledo, Universidade do Porto, Portugal
Gil Nata, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Portugal
Alexandra Doroftei, Universidade do Porto, Portugal
Tiago Neves, Universidade do Porto, Portugal

Abstract

Following Desrosières’ (1993) work on the epistemological tensions inherent in statistical objects, we examine how dropout and retention are defined, measured, and interpreted within the Portuguese education system. To do so, we combine a conceptual and statistical mapping of educational indicators with approximately 25 interviews with teachers and opinion-makers in the field of education, focusing on the gap between statistics and lived educational realities.
The mapping reveals important limitations in official indicators, particularly their reliance on age-based measures and aggregated categories. These indicators do not adequately capture processes of school disengagement during compulsory education, nor do they allow for a clear distinction between different educational trajectories. The qualitative analysis shows that, in practice, students who disengage from school often remain formally enrolled in the system. When they do not return, these cases are typically classified as retention due to absenteeism rather than as dropout. This administrative classification makes it difficult to distinguish between academic failure, temporary disengagement, and effective school abandonment. Bringing these two dimensions together reveals that conceptual plurality is structural – that is, the multiplicity of definitions of dropout and retention is not a contingent measurement problem, but an inherent feature of how these phenomena are institutionally produced. Together with monitoring failures and fragmented student data recording, this creates analytical opacity. As a result, crucial educational data such as dropout rates and patterns of retention may provide an inconsistent picture of student trajectories. This raises important challenges for the identification, interpretation, and governance of educational inequalities.

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