Using ARIMA Forecast for Scenario Projections to Compare Funding Mechanisms in the Singaporean Arts Sector

Author Information

Amberyce Ang, Singapore University of Social Sciences, Singapore
Elijah Loy, Hwa Chong Institution, Singapore

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of different government funding mechanisms on the financial sustainability of Singapore’s arts and heritage sector. It compares supply-side and demand-side interventions to identify which approach best supports long-term sector development. Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting models combined with regression analysis, the study evaluates three funding scenarios based on data from the Ministry of Culture, Community and Youth (MCCY) for FY 2022–2024. The scenarios include direct organisational grants (Scenario A), citizen-directed cultural vouchers (Scenario B), and a hybrid model combining both approaches (Scenario C). Results indicate that direct organisational grants provide the most immediate capacity increase, while the hybrid model achieves a more balanced outcome between organisational stability and audience demand. This balance suggests that hybrid funding offers a more sustainable pathway for sectoral growth compared to purely supply-side or demand-side mechanisms. Methodologically, the study demonstrates the application of ARIMA forecasting to cultural policy evaluation. It also advances comparative analysis of funding mechanisms in the arts sector, highlighting the interplay between supply-driven and demand-driven models in shaping sustainable cultural development.

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• Category: Arts - Arts Policy, Management and Advocacy

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